Английский язык для экономистов - Малюга Е.Н.
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Ongoing recovery due largely to turnaround in external conditions. Russia's economic recovery since early 1999 has exceeded by far even the most optimistic expectations. The steep devaluation of the rouble and prudent monetary and fiscal policies have played a crucial role. But, the recovery also owes a lot to the turnaround in global conditions: the global economy has recovered more strongly than expected by most forecasters following the Russian crisis in August 1998, and oil prices have more than doubled since the beginning of 1999.
Greater internationalization is called for. Most economists believe that Russia's recovery would be vulnerable to a drop in energy prices and that it won't evolve into a proper expansion unless profound economic reforms are implemented. While I agree 224
Английский ЯЗЫК ДЛЯ экономистов
on the importance of these reforms, I also believe that Russia cannot achieve its growth targets without increasing its integration into the world economy. A further opening up to trade and investment relations with non-CIS countries should be a key policy goal, especially considering Russia's need for capital and know-how, as well as the trend toward globalizat ion in the world economy. But, what is Russia's current position in the international division of labour? How can it be leveraged given the country's comparative advantages? How should economic policy be oriented in order to achieve these goals?
A declining position in manufacturing. At the end of the 1980s, the USSR was the largest world producer of energy and intermediate manufactures, notably steel. Its foreign trade was mostly concentrated in the Soviet block, although the USSR was expanding its oil and gas exports outside of that area. Today, Russia's share of world output is much lower, especially in manufacturing. In the steel industry, for instance, Russia is only the fourth-largest producing nation after China, Japan and the US.
Russia is largely an energy exporter. An analysis of Russia's foreign trade reveals that, although oil output is down to approximately half of its soviet-time level, Russia is largely an exporter of energy and metals, while it is a heavy importer of foodstuff and machinery. Even what we now call the "old economy" thus sees Russia as a decreasingly competitive player.
Presence in the "new-economy" is marginal .The panel on the "new economy" at our conference in Moscowr provided a very encouraging picture of rapidly growing activity and investment in the Internet and e-Commerce. Internet penetration is rising, and there are interesting new ventures, particularly in the B2B sector.
"Old economy" industries in need of profound restructuring. While Russia's relative specialization may well remain concentrated on energy and metals, there is a need and scope for a recovery in large-scale manufacturing. I found a recent study by the consulting firm McKinsey particularly enlightening in its microanalysis of selected sectors of the Russian economy. It shows that a significant share of capacity in the steel and oil industries can be revamped, but it also argued that many obsolete plants should be simply shut down.
But, cost competitiveness is a big plus for Russia. According to the McKinsey study, even after revamping, Russian steel plants would be less productive than US plants, let alone state-of-the-art Japanese plants. However, the potential gains from restructuring are substantial. Moreover, Russia can count on much lower input costs than its international competitors. Unit 13. Russia in the World Economy
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The labour cost advantage is huge. The rise in world energy prices and the rouble devaluation have made Russia hugely competitive in terms of energy and labour costs, respectively. Labour incomes will have to catch up in the coming years, but the high rate of hidden unemployment suggests that if the labour market becomes reasonably flexible, then Russia's cost advantage could be maintained for a relatively long period of time. We estimate that, in euro terms, Russia's hourly wages are generally less than 10 % of German wages. This is a level that, among the countries surveyed by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, can only be found in the poorest developing countries.
Human capital should be put to use. Technology is usually applied in order to save labour. But, the production of technology is labour intensive. Low compensation for clerical and skilled labourcan be a powerful competitive advantage in an era of increased communications. The same applies for scientists. One of the key findings from our Moscow conference was that a small elite of export-oriented software companies is indeed emerging in Russia. The challenge is now7 to make this a broader phenomenon. In my view, promoting entrepreneurship, the repatriation of scientists and intellectuals, fair competition and free trade in the technology sector should be among the overriding policy goals of the new Russian government.
