Английский язык для экономистов - Малюга Е.Н.
ISBN 5-469-00341-8
Скачать (прямая ссылка):
jP К, Case study
K.l. Read the article and answer the questions. The Importance of Error in Ecology
In the face of declining fish stocks, fisheries managers have been forced to take drastic measures to try and prevent total collapse of certain fish populations (Pikitch et al., 1997). Such measures include complete bans on fishing, as was done for the cod fishery in the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, or strict quotas that limit intakes, such as those now imposed on fishing vessels in European Union waters. A challenge of management is to provide a buffer for uncertainties to safeguard the future health of popula- Unit 12. Economics and Ecology
221
tions. Up until now, management has typically aimed to maximize the number of fish caught, while allowing little safety margin for error. In a useful commentary, Paul Dayton argues that appropriate application of available statistical techniques could allow such buffering.
The scientific method recognizes two types of error in measurement:
¦ type I error — the conclusion that there is an effect when there is none;
¦ type II error — when an impact exists but is not detected.
These types of errors can be illustrated by considering a proposal to restrict trawling in some areas of the Gulf of Maine to protect benthic habitat. Trawling for scallops can destroy benthic habitat as the nets scrape along the sea floor. If the proposal is accepted and trawling is banned, when in fact it has no serious impact, a type I error has been committed. If the proposal is rejected and trawling does result in habitat destruction, then a type II error is made. Current management lbcuses on reducing type I errors because maximizing fish catch is of primary economic importance. However, scientific advice should be explicit about type II errors also, because the environmental consequences from type II errors are much more serious and take longer to recover from. Type I errors usually result in only short-term economic costs. An understanding of the scientific method can clearly aid in the decision-making process.
K.2. There are two possible ways to correct type II errors:
¦ prove that environmental degradation has occurred (this assumes that there is no environmental degradation until demonstrated otherwise) before regulating the resource;
¦ require the exploiters of public nature resources to prove (switching the burden of proof) that they do not cause damage to the resource.
Why do you think it would be difficult to prove environmental degradation in the fishery industry? Is this also the case for other natural resources?
Do you think that the burden of proof must be put on the exploiters of public nature resources? What are the obstacles to enacting such an approach to resource management? Unit 13
Russia in the World Economy
A. Preliminary discussion
1. Has the world image of Russia changed since Mr. Putin took his office?
2. What do you think about the latest economic reforms in Russia?
3. Why in your view are the reforms not efficient enough?
B* Pre-reading exercises
B.l. Skim the text and give its key idea.
B.2. Scan the text for the following information.
1. What main branches of economy are analyzed in the presentation?
2. How does the author estimate Russia's economy?
3. In what way can the achievement of economic growth be accelerated?
4. Sum up the author's view on Russia's integration into the world economy?
C Reading
C.l. Read the text and answer the questions.
1. What have the principal changes been in Russia since the start of transition?
2. Do you think that Russia's economic rebound is mainly due to favourable external conditions? Prove your point of view.
3. What can you say about the situation in manufacturing?
4. What does the author mean by 'new' and 'old' economy? Unit 13. Russia in the World Economy
223
Russia in the World Economy: What Role and What Strategies?
Riccardo Barbieri
This article summarizes a presentation given at the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co Conference "Russia: 2000 and Beyond," held in Moscow.
Economic growth taking central stage. Russia's GDP is down to about 60 % of its level at the start of transition. On a per capita basis, it is equivalent to 10 % of the average EU level, or 30 % adjusting for PPP (World Bank data for 1998). Whilst it may be argued that today's output is of higher quality than at the start of transition, the dramatic fall in the standard of living of Russian households suggests that reducing this gap should be the overriding goal of economic policy. In fact, President Putin recently argued that Russia should aim for real GDP growth of 5-10 % over the coming years. Judged against the dismal performance since the beginning of transition, this looks like a very tall order.
Faster capital accumulation is needed. Some Russian economists have been arguing that industrial production could rise by 25 % simply by using spare capacity. However, part of the Soviet-time capital equipment has become obsolescent and appears to be of little or no economic value at present without significant revamping. Mr. Putin's ambitious growth targets would thus seem to require a much higher rate of capital accumulation than anything seen in recent decades.
